The volume of wine sold in large-scale retail outlets is falling (737 million litres, -2.7%), while the value remains broadly stable (€3.2 billion, -0.5%), thanks to a gradual shift by consumers towards higher-end products (but also to an average increase in prices [+2.3%]). These are the findings of the Circana research study presented yesterday at Vinitaly, the international wine and spirits trade fair, during the round table ‘Wine in mass retail: market dynamics and emerging challenges’.
“The analysis reveals a market in transition, characterised by pressure on volumes and a search for value – stated Virgilio Romano, Circana’s Insight Director and head of research –. In this context, it would appear that competition will reward the most efficient operators, those capable of enhancing the value of their product and attracting new consumers, especially in the middle and upper-middle segments”.
Consumers more value-conscious: premium segment grows – Indeed, one of the most significant trends relates to the so-called ‘mix effect’: it is consumers themselves who are pushing the average price upwards by choosing wines that are, on average, more expensive than in the past. The higher price brackets (over €10) are performing better, while the segments below €5, which account for the largest volumes, are experiencing the most significant declines. Looking at the data in more detail, white wines priced at over €5 recorded growth of 2%, which increased considerably for those priced at over €10 (+8.4%).
Sparkling wines buck the trend, semi-sparkling wines struggle – Among the various categories, sparkling wines are showing signs of resilience and growth, continuing their slow but steady erosion of market share, with a 1.5% increase in volume and a 1.2% increase in value. Specifically, rosé grew by 3.8% and white by 2.2%. Still win
es recorded a modest decline (-3.1% in volume, -0.5% in value), with reds continuing to lose ground (-4.2%) despite holding the largest market share (36%), while sparkling wines experienced the greatest difficulties (-5.7% in volume and -5.5% in value). In particular, excluding sparkling wines, still white wines stand out as one of the few categories able to make a positive contribution to the overall result, although they remain in negative territory (-2.1%).
Widespread declines across channels, with the exception of e-commerce – The drop in volumes is affecting all distribution channels across the board, with the exception of e-commerce, which is showing more positive trends. Sales are down across both promotional and full-price channels, with a more significant impact on large companies and private label (PL) products, while smaller businesses are showing greater resilience.
New opportunities: regional focus and innovation – The market is showing a growing interest in emerging appellations and regional identity, with consumers combining experimentation with a desire for reassurance. At the same time, a new niche market is emerging in the form of non-alcoholic wines, which is still marginal but growing, with an initial turnover of around €3 million and a progressively expanding distribution network.
A look ahead to 2026: continuity and anticipation – The first weeks of 2026 confirm the trends seen at the end of 2025: volumes are still declining for still wines, while there are more positive signs for sparkling wines. However, for a more comprehensive assessment of market performance, it will be necessary to await data for the first four months of the year.
The industry’s perspective
Alberto Arcidiacono, CRAI Private Label Beverage Purchasing Manager – “Circana 2025 data confirms a transformation in wine purchasing habits: consumers are more selective and, despite inflationary pressures combined with declining volumes, are demonstrating a desire to reward themselves by ‘daring to go higher.’ The challenge for large-scale retail is no longer simply to preserve volumes, but to capture this higher-value demand, enhancing the assortment and making it unique with a distinctive private label, further expanding the premium segment and the various sparkling wine varieties that continue to drive the sector, without neglecting emerging trends that could expand the consumer base in the medium term”.
Lorenzo Cafissi, Beverage Director, NewPrinces Group – “The close of 2025, unfortunately, once again reveals a struggling sector with no signs of recovery. This means that today, more than ever, a new approach is needed to revitalize mainstream attention towards this world by creating increasingly strategic and partnership-based relationships between industry and retail”.
Valeria Gasparre, Country Director Italy ILLVA Saronno and Duca di Salaparuta, representing Federvini – “The dynamics of the global wine market undoubtedly have a structural component, linked to the evolution of consumption patterns among younger generations, but they also likely have a cyclical component. In this context, producers are being called upon to rethink the wine communication paradigm, identifying a new and truly relevant language for consumers who seek a distinctive experience from brands and attribute value and equity primarily to this experience. Even drinks considered more ‘demanding,’ such as those of still red wines, can and should be reinterpreted through a different narrative, based on greater proximity, in line with increasingly fluid consumption occasions and ever-evolving competitive landscapes”.
Alessandra Manzato, Group Category Manager Grocery and Beverages at Conad – “The end of 2025 confirms a still complex market environment for wine, with a further decline in volumes. In this scenario, Conad performed better than the market, containing the decline in volume and recording greater growth in value. This confirms the solidity of its model, which values the quality of the offering and the ability to interpret evolving demand. The suffering remains concentrated mainly in still wine, while sparkling wines continue to represent the most dynamic segment, with positive performances also in volume. This result is supported by the increasingly central role of the home aperitif, which is driving not only sparkling wines, but also ancillary categories such as mixology spirits, tonics, and ready-to-drinks. The performance of sparkling wines, as well as the better performance of white wines compared to red wines and, within the latter, of less structured products, reflects a change in consumer behavior: the search for fresher, more versatile wines with lower alcohol content, consistent with the deconstructing meals and adopting lifestyles that are more focused on balance and well-being”.
Laura Mayr, General Manager of Ruggeri, representing Unione Italiana Vini – “Sales data in large-scale retail trade confirm consolidated trends, with overall consumption stagnating, increasingly driven by sparkling wines and white wines, and shifting toward premiumization. In this context, it is therefore essential to focus on offerings, both qualitatively and quantitatively. On the qualitative front, it will be increasingly necessary not only to find the right price positioning, but also to ensure product segmentation consistent with the market segments we wish to tap. The area where consumers, especially young ones, and wine today meet is that of identity, as the recent UIV-Vinitaly Observatory survey of Italian consumers also revealed. As for quantity, Unione Italiana Vini has long been pushing for production containment to rebalance the market and, consequently, enhance the product. Right now, we have the equivalent of a harvest and a half in the cellar: this is no longer sustainable”.
Eleanna Pizzinelli, Head of the Beverage Department at COOP Italia – “The 2025 trends, characterized by a reduction in both volumes and value, outline a mature market, where the contraction appears structural and not simply a negative cyclical phase. In this context, two key strategic directions emerge: differentiation, through strengthening brand content and building storytelling consistent with new consumption habits, combined with renewed emphasis on local products, which remains a key element; and comprehensive innovation, including the development of alcohol-free offerings and a growing focus on formats and packaging, which are increasingly important in consumer choices”.
Marco Usai, MD Discount Wine Specialist – “Circana’s numbers speak for themselves: discount stores are now a cornerstone of the Italian wine industry. It’s a responsibility we feel is ours, and it drives us to choose wines with identity, quality, and a price that doesn’t exclude anyone, especially new consumers. Rather than confuse customers with endless shelves, we’ve chosen to simplify, evolving our offerings toward new languages and consumption styles to respond to a changing market. To ensure this commitment, we’ve chosen to subject our wines to voluntary and rigorous quality analysis protocols, ensuring consistent quality for our customers over time. For us, wine must remain an agricultural and cultural product, to be enjoyed with intelligence and moderation: an excellence that once again becomes a daily pleasure, accessible to all”.
