By the first few months of 2027, the paper and cardboard recycling supply chain will bring online additional capacity, secured through the “Faro Carta” investments under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). In a climate favorable to the sector’s development, this new funding is set to provide a further boost—supporting both employment (+2.3%) and investment (+4%)—even as the industry continues to navigate certain uncertainties, particularly regarding energy.

According to a study conducted by Nomisma on behalf of Comieco, 24 of the 33 projects funded via the National Recovery and Resilience Plan are already fully operational, with the remainder expected to be up and running between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027.

This represents a vital leap forward for the industrial and environmental ecosystem; the new initiatives will enable the recycling of an additional 300,000 tons of paper and cardboard, with a significant impact in Southern Italy.

“Once the infrastructure and facilities are fully operational — and we are very close to that point“, notes Roberto Di Molfetta, General Manager of Comieco, “we will need to work alongside regional branches of the National Association of Italian Municipalities (ANCI) to increase the separate collection of paper and cardboard, especially in areas that have traditionally lagged behind—such as the South and certain major cities“.

The Nomisma Study

A closer look at the Nomisma study reveals that, by the EU-mandated NRRP deadline of June 30, 2026, 89% of the paper mills and paper-converting plants—whether newly built or upgraded thanks to this funding—will already be in operation. Meanwhile, 68% of the waste management facilities will be operational by that same date. A small gap is set to be closed by early 2027, when the remaining 11% of paper mill capacity comes online, alongside the commissioning of the final 23% of waste management facilities.

By that time, the 33 funded projects—representing a total investment of €212 million, comprising €67.2 million from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) and €145.5 million in self-financing—will be complete. This will allow the paper and cardboard recycling system to largely offset long-standing geographical imbalances.

Specifically, regarding paper mills, 8 of the 9 modernization projects are concentrated in the North and Center of Italy, while 16 of the 24 new waste treatment facilities are located in the South—the region with the greatest potential for increasing collection rates.

Benefits for the sector: job growth, particularly in the South

Nomisma compared the sector’s growth projections both with and without these extraordinary public investments. According to the study, thanks to the PNRR, the estimated average annual growth for waste management facilities in Southern Italy rises from 5.1% to 6.3%. Meanwhile, in terms of new employment, the forecast increases from +3.8% to +6%.

A two-speed growth pattern that reflects local needs: on one hand, it supports innovation within paper mills, while on the other, it bolsters the development of new waste management facilities—particularly in the South.

Greater capacity to capture paper that escapes the separate collection system

The implementation of investments under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) is leading to increased processing capacity across facilities; however, this growth is not uniform. Paper mills and paper-converting plants are expanding their management capacity by approximately 250,000 tonnes per year, while waste treatment facilities—which receive collected waste and prepare it for paper mills—are increasing their capacity by 370,000 tonnes per year.

Forty percent of this additional capacity in waste treatment facilities is concentrated in the South, and 39% in the Centre. Consequently, this expansion largely targets areas where significant quantities of paper and cardboard still need to be captured. In Southern Italy, the study estimates an additional collection potential of approximately 300,000 tonnes per year, accounting for 67% of the national total.

The challenge lies in the South: a pathway to increasing collection

In Sicily, the new capacity reaches approximately 110,000 tonnes per year, covering 100% of the estimated additional potential in Catania and Syracuse, and 85% in Agrigento.

In Abruzzo and Molise, the 22,000 tonnes of additional annual capacity fully cover the potential identified in the L’Aquila and Chieti–Campobasso areas.

In the Lazio region, the 60,000 tonnes of new annual capacity in Rome are sufficient to absorb 100% of the potential increase estimated for that territory.

In Campania, the 55,000 tonnes per year account for approximately 50% of the additional growth projected for the Naples and Caserta areas; when investments outside the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) are also taken into account, this coverage could reach 100%.