If we had to sum up the Italian packaging industry in 2026 with a single word, it would likely be “resilience“. It is not a year of strong growth, but neither is it one of decline. In a landscape marked by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and mounting competitive pressure, the sector continues to demonstrate a staying power that cannot be taken for granted.
The latest figures point to a largely stable sector. In the first six months of the year, exports saw a 0.3% increase, while orders for the first eight months showed a 3.8% decline compared to the same period in 2025. This trend confirms a slowdown in demand, yet it also highlights the ability of companies to maintain their standing in international markets.
According to MECS forecasts, global GDP is expected to grow by 3% in 2026—following a 3.5% increase in 2025—with Asia, India, and Africa remaining key drivers of development. At the same time, however, rising tariffs, trade tensions, and logistical challenges along certain strategic routes continue to weigh on corporate investment decisions.
Following a period of normalization in 2024–2025, raw materials are once again showing signs of strain. Oil, gas, and energy costs have risen significantly, and price increases are also being seen across the industrial supply chain for metals, mechanical components, and electronics. For machinery manufacturers, this means continuing to contend with pressure on costs and supply chain management.
Despite this, the global market for packaging machinery continues to offer a positive outlook. The total value of the sector is projected to grow from €58.5 billion in 2025 to €67.7 billion by 2030. While this growth is less rapid than in the past, it remains supported by widespread investment across key manufacturing supply chains.
The geography of demand is also shifting. Although Europe retains a central position on the supply side, growth in consumption and investment is increasingly concentrated in Asia and emerging markets. While the United States and China remain vital markets, new opportunities are also emerging in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.
For the Italian packaging industry, the overall outlook remains favorable. In 2025, UCIMA-member companies surpassed €10.4 billion in revenue, confirming a growth trajectory built on innovation, internationalization, and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
The true challenge in the coming years will not be so much an increase in volume, but rather the growing complexity of demand. Sustainability, automation, digitalization, new materials, and greater production flexibility are redefining customer requirements, necessitating increasingly advanced technologies.
Consequently, expectations for the near future remain cautious. There are no signs of a significant acceleration, yet neither are there indications of structural instability. In a period of global uncertainty, stability itself is a notable achievement. Ultimately, it will be the ability to innovate and maintain a strong presence in international markets that determines the competitiveness of Italian firms when the economic cycle begins to accelerate once again.
